<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><b>박근혜</b></span><b>/</b><span class="s1"><b>최순실</b></span><b> </b><span class="s1"><b>게이트</b></span><b> </b><span class="s1"><b>이후</b></span><b> </b><span class="s1"><b>정치구조</b></span><b>/</b><span class="s1"><b>구도</b></span><b> </b><span class="s1"><b>변화</b></span><b> </b><span class="s1"><b>예측을</b></span><b> </b><span class="s1"><b>위한</b></span><b> ACH </b><span class="s1"><b>분석</b></span><b>(161130 17:00)</b></p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p1">161130<span class="s1">일</span> 17:00<span class="s1">시</span> <span class="s1">기준</span></p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p3"><span class="s2">O </span>지난<span class="s2"> 24</span>시간<span class="s2"> </span>동안의<span class="s2"> </span>추가<span class="s2"> </span>첩보</p> <p class="p3"><span class="s2"> - </span>박<span class="s2"> </span>대통령<span class="s2"> 3</span>차<span class="s2"> </span>담화<span class="s2"> </span>내용<span class="s2"> </span>중<span class="s2"> </span>특이사항</p> <p class="p3"><span class="s2">   </span>박<span class="s2"> </span>대통령은<span class="s2"> 29</span>일<span class="s2"> 15</span>시<span class="s2"> </span>담화를<span class="s2"> </span>통해<span class="s2">, </span>본인이<span class="s2"> </span>사익을<span class="s2"> </span>추구하지<span class="s2"> </span>않았으며<span class="s2"> </span>주변<span class="s2"> </span>관리를<span class="s2"> </span>잘못<span class="s2"> </span>관리하였다면서<span class="s2"> </span>자신에<span class="s2"> </span>대한<span class="s2"> </span>사법적<span class="s2"> </span>책임을<span class="s2"> </span>회피하는<span class="s2"> </span>발언을<span class="s2"> </span>하였다<span class="s2">. </span>또한<span class="s2"> </span>대통령직<span class="s2"> “</span>임기단축<span class="s2">”</span>을<span class="s2"> </span>포함한<span class="s2"> </span>진퇴문제를<span class="s2"> </span>국회<span class="s2"> </span>결정에<span class="s2"> </span>맡기겠으며<span class="s2"> </span>여야<span class="s2"> </span>정치권이<span class="s2"> </span>논의해서<span class="s2"> </span>정권<span class="s2"> </span>이양<span class="s2"> </span>방안을<span class="s2"> </span>만들어주면<span class="s2"> </span>그<span class="s2"> </span>일정과<span class="s2"> “</span>법<span class="s2"> </span>절차<span class="s2">”</span>에<span class="s2"> </span>따라<span class="s2"> </span>대통령직에서<span class="s2"> </span>물러나겠다고<span class="s2"> </span>언급했다<span class="s2">. </span>대한민국<span class="s2"> </span>헌법<span class="s2"> </span>제<span class="s2"> 70</span>조는<span class="s2"> </span>대통령의<span class="s2"> </span>임기는<span class="s2"> 5</span>년으로<span class="s2"> </span>하며<span class="s2">, </span>중임할<span class="s2"> </span>수<span class="s2"> </span>없다고<span class="s2"> </span>기술하고<span class="s2"> </span>있을<span class="s2"> </span>뿐<span class="s2">, </span>별도로<span class="s2"> “</span>임기<span class="s2"> </span>단축<span class="s2">”</span>에<span class="s2"> </span>필요한<span class="s2"> </span>절차는<span class="s2"> </span>언급하지<span class="s2"> </span>않고<span class="s2"> </span>있다<span class="s2">. </span>이는<span class="s2"> “</span>임기<span class="s2"> </span>단축<span class="s2">”</span>을<span class="s2"> </span>위해<span class="s2"> “</span>개헌<span class="s2">’</span>이라는<span class="s2"> “</span>법<span class="s2"> </span>절차<span class="s2">”</span>가<span class="s2"> </span>필요함을<span class="s2"> </span>의미한다<span class="s2">.</span></p> <p class="p3"><span class="s2">   </span>이상의<span class="s2"> </span>언급<span class="s2"> </span>내용과<span class="s2"> </span>첩보<span class="s2"> </span>평가를<span class="s2"> </span>고려할<span class="s2"> </span>때<span class="s2">, </span>박근혜<span class="s2"> </span>대통령<span class="s2"> </span>및<span class="s2"> </span>친박<span class="s2"> </span>세력은<span class="s2"> “</span>법<span class="s2"> </span>절차<span class="s2">”</span>를<span class="s2"> </span>앞세워<span class="s2"> </span>사퇴<span class="s2"> </span>시기<span class="s2"> </span>지연과<span class="s2"> </span>개헌<span class="s2"> </span>시도를<span class="s2"> </span>병행하고<span class="s2"> </span>있는<span class="s2"> </span>것으로<span class="s2"> </span>추정된다<span class="s2">.</span></p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p3"><span class="s2"> - </span>박<span class="s2"> </span>대통령<span class="s2"> 3</span>차<span class="s2"> </span>담화에<span class="s2"> </span>대한<span class="s2"> </span>야<span class="s2"> 3</span>당의<span class="s2"> </span>반응</p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p3"><span class="s2">   30</span>일<span class="s2"> 15:00</span>시<span class="s2"> </span>현재까지의<span class="s2"> </span>야<span class="s2"> 3</span>당<span class="s2"> </span>합의<span class="s2"> </span>내용은<span class="s2"> </span>대통령<span class="s2"> </span>임기<span class="s2"> </span>단축<span class="s2"> </span>협상<span class="s2"> </span>불가<span class="s2">, </span>탄핵추진<span class="s2">, </span>조건없는<span class="s2"> </span>하야<span class="s2">, </span>새누리당<span class="s2"> </span>의원<span class="s2"> </span>동참<span class="s2"> </span>촉구이다<span class="s2">. </span>하지만<span class="s2"> </span>기존의<span class="s2"> </span>즉각적인<span class="s2"> </span>탄핵<span class="s2"> </span>방침은<span class="s2"> </span>담화<span class="s2"> </span>이후<span class="s2"> </span>탈박계의<span class="s2"> </span>동요를<span class="s2"> </span>고려하여<span class="s2">, </span>탄핵<span class="s2"> </span>표결을<span class="s2"> 2</span>일에서<span class="s2"> 9</span>일로<span class="s2"> </span>연기하는<span class="s2"> </span>방안이<span class="s2"> </span>대안으로<span class="s2"> </span>등장하고<span class="s2"> </span>있다<span class="s2">. 30</span>일<span class="s2"> </span>야<span class="s2"> 3</span>당<span class="s2"> </span>대표<span class="s2"> </span>회동<span class="s2"> </span>후<span class="s2">, </span>국민의당<span class="s2"> </span>박지원<span class="s2"> </span>비대위원장은<span class="s2"> “</span>박근혜<span class="s2"> </span>대통령을<span class="s2"> </span>탄핵시키지<span class="s2"> </span>않으면<span class="s2"> </span>비박은<span class="s2"> </span>죽는다<span class="s2">. 12</span>월<span class="s2"> 2</span>일이<span class="s2"> </span>어려우면<span class="s2"> </span>마지막<span class="s2"> </span>기회인<span class="s2"> 9</span>일에<span class="s2"> </span>함께하자<span class="s2">.”</span>고<span class="s2"> </span>언급한<span class="s2"> </span>바<span class="s2"> </span>있다<span class="s2">.</span></p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p3"><span class="s2"> - </span>박<span class="s2"> </span>대통령<span class="s2"> 3</span>차<span class="s2"> </span>담화에<span class="s2"> </span>대한<span class="s2"> </span>탈박계의<span class="s2"> </span>반응</p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p3"><span class="s2">   30</span>일<span class="s2"> 15:00</span>시<span class="s2"> </span>현재까지<span class="s2"> </span>탈박계는<span class="s2"> </span>비상시국회의를<span class="s2"> </span>통해<span class="s2"> </span>대통령의<span class="s2"> </span>임기<span class="s2"> </span>단축을<span class="s2"> </span>위한<span class="s2"> </span>개헌은<span class="s2"> </span>명분이<span class="s2"> </span>없고<span class="s2">, </span>대통령<span class="s2"> </span>스스로<span class="s2"> </span>사퇴시한을<span class="s2"> </span>밝힐<span class="s2"> </span>것을<span class="s2"> </span>요구하였으며<span class="s2"> </span>적절한<span class="s2"> </span>사퇴<span class="s2"> </span>시기로<span class="s2"> 4</span>월<span class="s2"> </span>말을<span class="s2"> </span>제시하였다<span class="s2">.</span></p> <p class="p3"><span class="s2">   </span>이는<span class="s2"> </span>탄핵<span class="s2"> </span>가결<span class="s2"> </span>가능성을<span class="s2"> </span>높이는<span class="s2"> </span>입장으로<span class="s2"> </span>추정된다<span class="s2">. </span>하지만<span class="s2"> </span>지난<span class="s2"> 24</span>일<span class="s2"> </span>탈박계<span class="s2"> </span>핵심인<span class="s2"> </span>김무성<span class="s2"> </span>전<span class="s2"> </span>대표가<span class="s2"> JTBC </span>뉴스룸에<span class="s2"> </span>출연하여<span class="s2"> </span>제왕적<span class="s2"> </span>대통령제를<span class="s2"> </span>비판하며<span class="s2"> </span>내각제<span class="s2"> </span>개헌<span class="s2"> </span>필요성을<span class="s2"> </span>언급했던<span class="s2"> </span>점을<span class="s2"> </span>고려할<span class="s2"> </span>때<span class="s2">, </span>대통령의<span class="s2"> </span>적절한<span class="s2"> </span>사퇴<span class="s2"> </span>시기로<span class="s2"> 4</span>월<span class="s2"> </span>말을<span class="s2"> </span>제시한<span class="s2"> </span>탈박계의<span class="s2"> </span>입장은<span class="s2"> </span>내각제<span class="s2"> </span>개헌을<span class="s2"> </span>전제로한<span class="s2"> </span>일정<span class="s2"> </span>제시로<span class="s2"> </span>추정된다<span class="s2">.</span></p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p3"><span class="s2"> - </span>국만의당<span class="s2"> </span>김동철<span class="s2"> </span>차기<span class="s2"> </span>비대위원장<span class="s2"> </span>발언</p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p3"><span class="s2">   12</span>월<span class="s2"> 3</span>일부터<span class="s2"> </span>박지원<span class="s2"> </span>비대위원장<span class="s2"> </span>후속으로<span class="s2"> </span>차기<span class="s2"> </span>국민의당<span class="s2"> </span>비대위원장에<span class="s2"> </span>내정되어있는<span class="s2"> </span>김동철<span class="s2"> </span>의원은<span class="s2"> “</span>박<span class="s2"> </span>대통령이<span class="s2"> </span>퇴진일정을<span class="s2"> </span>안<span class="s2"> </span>밝혔다고<span class="s2"> </span>비판하는<span class="s2"> </span>분들이<span class="s2"> </span>있는데<span class="s2">, 4</span>월이나<span class="s2"> 6</span>월에<span class="s2"> </span>퇴진한다고<span class="s2"> </span>하면<span class="s2"> </span>진정성이<span class="s2"> </span>있느냐<span class="s2">”</span>라는<span class="s2"> </span>말로<span class="s2"> </span>여야가<span class="s2"> </span>퇴진<span class="s2"> </span>일정을<span class="s2"> </span>논의해야한다고<span class="s2"> </span>주장했다는<span class="s2"> </span>보도가<span class="s2"> </span>통신사<span class="s2"> </span>뉴시스발<span class="s2"> </span>보도로<span class="s2"> </span>보도되었다<span class="s2">.</span></p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p3"><span class="s2"> - </span>검찰<span class="s2">, </span>우병우<span class="s2">, </span>김기춘<span class="s2"> </span>피의자<span class="s2"> </span>신분<span class="s2"> </span>전환</p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p3"><span class="s2"> - </span>박영수<span class="s2"> </span>특별검사<span class="s2"> </span>임명</p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p1">O <span class="s1">평가</span></p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p3"><span class="s2"> - </span>박근혜<span class="s2"> </span>대통령과<span class="s2"> </span>친박은<span class="s2"> “</span>법<span class="s2"> </span>절차<span class="s2">”</span>를<span class="s2"> </span>매개로<span class="s2">, </span>민주당<span class="s2">, </span>국민의당<span class="s2">, </span>탈박계의<span class="s2"> </span>연대와<span class="s2"> </span>정책공조에<span class="s2"> </span>균열을<span class="s2"> </span>내는데<span class="s2"> </span>부분적인<span class="s2"> </span>성공을<span class="s2"> </span>거두어<span class="s2"> </span>향후<span class="s2"> </span>정치일정<span class="s2"> </span>진행을<span class="s2"> </span>위한<span class="s2"> </span>시간을<span class="s2">  </span>것으로<span class="s2"> </span>판단된다<span class="s2">. </span>이를<span class="s2"> </span>통해<span class="s2"> 12</span>월<span class="s2"> 9</span>일까지<span class="s2"> </span>약<span class="s2"> </span>열흘의<span class="s2"> </span>시간<span class="s2"> </span>확보한<span class="s2"> </span>것으로<span class="s2"> </span>추정된다<span class="s2">.</span></p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p3"><span class="s2"> - </span>탄핵에<span class="s2"> </span>적극적이었던<span class="s2"> </span>청와대의<span class="s2"> </span>입장을<span class="s2"> </span>고려할<span class="s2"> </span>때<span class="s2">, </span>박근혜<span class="s2"> </span>대통령과<span class="s2"> </span>친박계는<span class="s2"> </span>대통령의<span class="s2"> </span>퇴진이라는<span class="s2"> </span>메세지를<span class="s2"> </span>지속적으로<span class="s2"> </span>흘리며<span class="s2"> </span>여론과<span class="s2"> </span>정치권을<span class="s2"> </span>기만하여<span class="s2"> </span>정치일정을<span class="s2"> </span>지연시키는<span class="s2"> </span>기만전술을<span class="s2"> </span>지속할<span class="s2"> </span>것으로<span class="s2"> </span>추정된다<span class="s2">.</span></p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p3"><span class="s2"> - </span>현재까지의<span class="s2"> </span>추가첩보를<span class="s2"> </span>고려하여<span class="s2">, </span>개별<span class="s2"> </span>시나리오에<span class="s2"> </span>대한<span class="s2"> </span>평가를<span class="s2"> </span>다음과<span class="s2"> </span>같이<span class="s2"> </span>조정하였다<span class="s2">.</span></p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p3"><span class="s2"> - 6. </span>내각제<span class="s2"> </span>개헌과<span class="s2"> 7. </span>조기대선<span class="s2"> </span>시나리오의<span class="s2"> </span>가능성을<span class="s2"> </span>각각<span class="s2"> </span>한<span class="s2"> </span>단계씩<span class="s2"> </span>상향하였다<span class="s2">.</span></p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p3"><span class="s2"> - 9. </span>급변사태<span class="s2">(</span>계엄령<span class="s2">/</span>친위쿠데타<span class="s2">/</span>시민혁명<span class="s2">) </span>시나리오의<span class="s2"> </span>가능성을<span class="s2"> </span>한<span class="s2"> </span>단계<span class="s2"> </span>하향하였다<span class="s2">.</span></p> <p class="p3"><span class="s2"><br></span></p> <p class="p3"><span class="s2"><br></span></p> <p class="p3"></p> <div style="text-align:left;"> <div style="text-align:left;"><img src="http://thimg.todayhumor.co.kr/upfile/201611/1480495381c940362f21a447f58bb8de48e43cf89f__mn645894__w1435__h803__f132961__Ym201611.png" width="800" height="448" alt="스크린샷 2016-11-30 오후 5.42.22.png" class="chimg_photo" style="border:none;" filesize="132961"></div><br></div><br><p></p>