<p class="p1"> </p> <p class="p1"><span class="s1"><b></b></span></p> <div style="text-align:left;"><b><img src="http://thimg.todayhumor.co.kr/upfile/201612/1480587811fc60b536c6da48279e9a959d740244ad__mn645894__w1436__h808__f129258__Ym201612.png" width="800" height="450" alt="스크린샷 2016-12-01 오후 7.22.16.png" class="chimg_photo" style="border:none;" filesize="129258"></b></div><b><br></b> <p></p> <p class="p1"><span class="s1"><b><br></b></span></p> <p class="p1"><span class="s1"><b>박근혜</b></span><b>/</b><span class="s1"><b>최순실</b></span><b> </b><span class="s1"><b>게이트</b></span><b> </b><span class="s1"><b>이후</b></span><b> </b><span class="s1"><b>정치구조</b></span><b>/</b><span class="s1"><b>구도</b></span><b> </b><span class="s1"><b>변화</b></span><b> </b><span class="s1"><b>예측을</b></span><b> </b><span class="s1"><b>위한</b></span><b> ACH </b><span class="s1"><b>분석</b></span></p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p2"> 깬또찍고 있는데 생각보다 잘 맞아 들어가는군요. 지난 평가는 아이디 검색으로 확인해보시기 바랍니다. : )</p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p2">-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------</p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p3">161201<span class="s2">일</span> 19:00<span class="s2">시</span> <span class="s2">기준</span></p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p1"><span class="s1">O </span>지난<span class="s1"> 24</span>시간<span class="s1"> </span>동안의<span class="s1"> </span>추가<span class="s1"> </span>첩보</p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p1"><span class="s1"> - </span>새누리당<span class="s1"> </span>탈박계<span class="s1"> </span>비대위<span class="s1"> </span>대변인<span class="s1"> </span>황영철<span class="s1"> </span>의원<span class="s1">, </span>박근혜<span class="s1"> </span>대통령<span class="s1"> 4</span>월<span class="s1"> </span>퇴진<span class="s1"> </span>및<span class="s1"> </span>내각제<span class="s1"> </span>패키지<span class="s1"> </span>개헌<span class="s1"> </span>언급</p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p1"><span class="s1">   </span>새누리당<span class="s1"> </span>탈박계<span class="s1"> </span>비대위<span class="s1"> </span>대변인을<span class="s1"> </span>맡고<span class="s1"> </span>있는<span class="s1"> </span>황영철<span class="s1"> </span>의원은<span class="s1"> </span>지난<span class="s1"> 30</span>일<span class="s1"> JTBC </span>뉴스룸에<span class="s1"> </span>출연하여<span class="s1">, </span>박근혜<span class="s1"> </span>대통령이<span class="s1"> 4</span>월<span class="s1"> </span>말<span class="s1"> </span></p> <p class="p1">퇴진을<span class="s1"> </span>약속한다면<span class="s1"> </span>탈박계는<span class="s1"> </span>탄핵에<span class="s1"> </span>동참하지<span class="s1"> </span>않을<span class="s1"> </span>수<span class="s1"> </span>있다고<span class="s1"> </span>발언하였으며<span class="s1">, 4</span>월<span class="s1"> </span>말<span class="s1"> </span>퇴진<span class="s1"> </span>후<span class="s1"> 6</span>월<span class="s1"> </span>대선을<span class="s1"> </span>치룰<span class="s1"> </span>경우<span class="s1"> </span>모든<span class="s1"> </span>정당이<span class="s1"> </span></p> <p class="p1">유불리를<span class="s1"> </span>따지지<span class="s1"> </span>못할<span class="s1"> </span>것이라고<span class="s1"> </span>언급하였다<span class="s1">. </span>하지만<span class="s1"> </span>이어서<span class="s1"> </span>박근혜<span class="s1"> </span>대통령의<span class="s1"> 4</span>월<span class="s1"> </span>퇴진<span class="s1"> </span>문제와<span class="s1"> </span>내각제<span class="s1"> </span>개헌을<span class="s1"> </span>함께<span class="s1"> </span>처리할<span class="s1"> </span></p> <p class="p1">필요가<span class="s1"> </span>있다는<span class="s1"> </span>의견을<span class="s1"> </span>피력하며<span class="s1"> </span>개헌정국으로의<span class="s1"> </span>전환<span class="s1"> </span>필요성을<span class="s1"> </span>역설하였다<span class="s1">.</span></p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p1"><span class="s1"> - </span>추미애<span class="s1"> </span>대표<span class="s1">, </span>김무성<span class="s1"> </span>전<span class="s1"> </span>대표<span class="s1"> </span>여의도<span class="s1"> </span>조찬회동<span class="s1"> </span>결과</p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p1"><span class="s1">    </span>탄핵을<span class="s1"> </span>위한<span class="s1"> </span>정족수<span class="s1"> </span>충족의<span class="s1"> </span>키를<span class="s1"> </span>쥐고<span class="s1"> </span>있는<span class="s1"> </span>탈박계의<span class="s1"> </span>수장<span class="s1"> </span>김무성<span class="s1"> </span>전<span class="s1"> </span>대표는<span class="s1"> 4</span>월<span class="s1"> 30</span>일<span class="s1"> </span>대통령의<span class="s1"> </span>퇴임이<span class="s1"> </span>결정되면<span class="s1"> </span>굳이<span class="s1"> </span>탄핵을<span class="s1"> </span></p> <p class="p1">하지<span class="s1"> </span>않을<span class="s1"> </span>수<span class="s1"> </span>있다는<span class="s1"> </span>의견을<span class="s1"> </span>내놓았다<span class="s1">. </span>이는<span class="s1"> 12</span>월<span class="s1"> 9</span>일<span class="s1"> </span>이전<span class="s1"> 4</span>월<span class="s1"> </span>말<span class="s1"> </span>퇴진론과<span class="s1"> </span>관련된<span class="s1"> </span>대통령<span class="s1">/</span>친박계와<span class="s1"> </span>탈박계<span class="s1"> </span>사이의<span class="s1"> </span>합의가<span class="s1"> </span></p> <p class="p1">있을<span class="s1"> </span>경우<span class="s1">, </span>탄핵을<span class="s1"> </span>하지<span class="s1"> </span>않겠다는<span class="s1"> </span>의도로<span class="s1"> </span>판단된다<span class="s1">.</span></p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p1"><span class="s1"> - </span>정진석<span class="s1"> </span>원내대표<span class="s1">, </span>박<span class="s1"> </span>대통령<span class="s1"> 4</span>월말<span class="s1"> </span>사퇴<span class="s1"> </span>후<span class="s1"> 6</span>월<span class="s1"> </span>대선<span class="s1"> </span>당론<span class="s1"> </span>채택<span class="s1"> </span>발표</p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p1"><span class="s1">   1</span>일<span class="s1"> </span>오전<span class="s1">, </span>친박계<span class="s1"> </span>정진석<span class="s1"> </span>원내대표는<span class="s1"> </span>박<span class="s1"> </span>대통령의<span class="s1"> 4</span>월<span class="s1"> </span>말<span class="s1"> </span>사퇴<span class="s1"> </span>후<span class="s1"> 6</span>월<span class="s1"> </span>대선을<span class="s1"> </span>당론으로<span class="s1"> </span>채택하였다고<span class="s1"> </span>발표하였다<span class="s1">. </span>이는<span class="s1"> </span></p> <p class="p1">새누리당내<span class="s1"> </span>친박계와<span class="s1"> </span>탈박계가<span class="s1"> </span>다시<span class="s1"> </span>공동의<span class="s1"> </span>목표를<span class="s1"> </span>위해<span class="s1"> </span>손을<span class="s1"> </span>잡은<span class="s1"> </span>것으로<span class="s1"> </span>추정할<span class="s1"> </span>수<span class="s1"> </span>있는<span class="s1"> </span>첩보이다<span class="s1">.</span></p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p1"><span class="s1"> - </span>국만의당<span class="s1">, 2</span>일<span class="s1"> </span>탄핵<span class="s1"> </span>표결을<span class="s1"> 9</span>일로<span class="s1"> </span>연기</p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p1"><span class="s1">   1</span>일<span class="s1"> </span>국민의당<span class="s1"> </span>이용호<span class="s1"> </span>원내대변인은<span class="s1"> </span>국회<span class="s1"> </span>브리핑에서<span class="s1"> “</span>민주당은<span class="s1"> </span>오늘<span class="s1"> </span>탄핵안을<span class="s1"> </span>발의하려고<span class="s1"> </span>하지만<span class="s1">, </span>우리는<span class="s1"> </span>탄핵이<span class="s1"> </span>목적이지<span class="s1"> </span></p> <p class="p1">발의가<span class="s1"> </span>목적이<span class="s1"> </span>아니다<span class="s1">"</span>며<span class="s1"> "</span>비박계<span class="s1"> </span>의원들이<span class="s1"> </span>적어도<span class="s1"> 7</span>일까지<span class="s1"> </span>협상을<span class="s1"> </span>하고<span class="s1"> </span>안되면<span class="s1"> 9</span>일에<span class="s1"> </span>탄핵하자는<span class="s1"> </span>입장이기<span class="s1"> </span>때문에<span class="s1"> </span>거의<span class="s1"> </span></p> <p class="p1">안되는<span class="s1"> </span>것이<span class="s1"> </span>뻔하다<span class="s1">. </span>탄핵이<span class="s1"> </span>안되면<span class="s1"> </span>대통령에게<span class="s1"> </span>면죄부를<span class="s1"> </span>주는<span class="s1"> </span>상황이기<span class="s1"> </span>때문에<span class="s1"> </span>우리는<span class="s1"> </span>참여하지<span class="s1"> </span>않겠다는<span class="s1"> </span>입장을<span class="s1"> </span>어제에<span class="s1"> </span></p> <p class="p1">이어<span class="s1"> </span>오늘도<span class="s1"> (</span>민주당에<span class="s1">) </span>밝혔다<span class="s1">"</span>고<span class="s1"> </span>언급하였다.</p> <p class="p4"><br></p> <p class="p1"><span class="s1"> - </span>국민통합위원장에<span class="s1"> </span>최성규<span class="s1"> </span>목사<span class="s1"> </span>임명<span class="s1"> : </span>기독교계<span class="s1"> </span>보수<span class="s1"> </span>여론층<span class="s1"> </span>흡수<span class="s1"> </span>시도<span class="s1"> </span>노력으로<span class="s1"> </span>평가</p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p1"><span class="s1"> - </span>구미<span class="s1"> </span>박정희<span class="s1"> </span>생가<span class="s1">, </span>방화로<span class="s1"> </span>전소<span class="s1"> : </span>방화범의<span class="s1"> </span>신원과<span class="s1"> </span>방화<span class="s1"> </span>이유<span class="s1"> </span>등의<span class="s1"> </span>추가<span class="s1"> </span>첩보<span class="s1"> </span>입수<span class="s1"> </span>시까지<span class="s1"> </span>평가<span class="s1"> </span>보류</p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p3">O <span class="s2">평가</span></p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p1"><span class="s1"> - </span>새누리당의<span class="s1"> </span>내분<span class="s1"> </span>및<span class="s1"> </span>분당사태는<span class="s1"> </span>수습되었으며<span class="s1">, </span>친박과<span class="s1"> </span>탈박<span class="s1"> </span>세력은<span class="s1"> </span>공동의<span class="s1"> </span>목표를<span class="s1"> </span>위해<span class="s1"> </span>협조하고<span class="s1"> </span>있다<span class="s1">.</span></p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p1"><span class="s1"> - </span>박근혜<span class="s1"> </span>대통령과<span class="s1"> </span>친박은<span class="s1"> </span>탄핵을<span class="s1"> </span>주장하는<span class="s1"> </span>민주당과<span class="s1"> </span>정의당을<span class="s1"> </span>고립시키고<span class="s1">, </span>내각제<span class="s1"> </span>개헌세력을<span class="s1"> </span>규합하고<span class="s1"> </span>있다<span class="s1">. </span></p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p1"><span class="s1"> - </span>국민의당은<span class="s1"> </span>탄핵<span class="s1"> </span>표결을<span class="s1"> 9</span>일로<span class="s1"> </span>지연시키며<span class="s1">, </span>새누리당과의<span class="s1"> </span>협상<span class="s1"> </span>가능성을<span class="s1"> </span>열어두고<span class="s1"> </span>있다<span class="s1">.</span></p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p1"><span class="s1"> - </span>현재까지의<span class="s1"> </span>추가첩보를<span class="s1"> </span>고려하여<span class="s1">, </span>개별<span class="s1"> </span>시나리오에<span class="s1"> </span>대한<span class="s1"> </span>개선<span class="s1"> </span>및<span class="s1"> </span>평가를<span class="s1"> </span>새롭게<span class="s1"> </span>진행하고<span class="s1"> </span>있으며<span class="s1">,</span></p> <p class="p1"><span class="s1">   </span>개선된<span class="s1"> ACH </span>분석<span class="s1"> </span>시나리오<span class="s1"> </span>도표는<span class="s1"> 12</span>월<span class="s1"> 2</span>일부로<span class="s1"> </span>갱신될<span class="s1"> </span>것이다<span class="s1">. </span>현<span class="s1"> </span>시나리오를<span class="s1"> </span>기준으로한</p> <p class="p1"><span class="s1">   </span>변경사항은<span class="s1"> </span>다음과<span class="s1"> </span>같다<span class="s1">.</span></p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p1"><span class="s1"> - 1. </span>탄핵<span class="s1"> </span>시나리오<span class="s1">, 4-2 </span>친박<span class="s1"> </span>와해<span class="s1"> / </span>탈박<span class="s1"> </span>집결<span class="s1">, 8. </span>정상<span class="s1"> </span>대선<span class="s1"> </span>시나리오의<span class="s1"> </span>실현<span class="s1"> </span>가능성이<span class="s1"> </span>한<span class="s1"> </span>단계<span class="s1"> </span>감소한<span class="s1"> </span>것으로<span class="s1"> </span>평가한다<span class="s1">.</span></p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p1"><span class="s1"> - 7. </span>조기대선<span class="s1"> </span>시나리오의<span class="s1"> </span>실현<span class="s1"> </span>가능성이<span class="s1"> </span>한<span class="s1"> </span>단계<span class="s1"> </span>증가한<span class="s1"> </span>것으로<span class="s1"> </span>평가한다<span class="s1">.</span></p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p3">O <span class="s2">향후</span> 24<span class="s2">시간</span> / <span class="s2">주간</span> <span class="s2">전망</span></p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p1"><span class="s1"> - </span>향후<span class="s1"> 24</span>시간<span class="s1"> </span>동안<span class="s1">, </span>탄핵에<span class="s1"> </span>동조하는<span class="s1"> </span>국민들과<span class="s1"> </span>국회의원들은<span class="s1"> </span>고립될<span class="s1"> </span>것이며<span class="s1">, </span>이에<span class="s1"> </span>따라<span class="s1"> </span>국민들의<span class="s1"> </span>비정기적이고<span class="s1"> </span></p> <p class="p1">   산발적인<span class="s1"> </span>시위<span class="s1"> </span>및<span class="s1"> </span>집회가<span class="s1"> </span>증가할<span class="s1"> </span>것으로<span class="s1"> </span>예상된다<span class="s1">.</span></p> <p class="p2"><br></p> <p class="p1"><span class="s1"> - </span>향후<span class="s1"> </span>주간<span class="s1"> </span>전망으로<span class="s1"> </span>탄핵에<span class="s1"> </span>동조하는<span class="s1"> </span>국민들과<span class="s1"> </span>국회의원들은<span class="s1"> </span>고립되고<span class="s1">, </span>탄핵<span class="s1"> </span>표결이<span class="s1"> </span>무산<span class="s1"> </span>혹은<span class="s1"> </span>부결될<span class="s1"> </span>가능성이<span class="s1"> </span></p> <p class="p1">   높을<span class="s1"> </span>것으로<span class="s1"> </span>추정된다<span class="s1">. </span>박근혜<span class="s1"> </span>대통령과<span class="s1"> </span>친박계는<span class="s1"> </span>민주당<span class="s1">-</span>정의당<span class="s1">, </span>국민의당<span class="s1">, </span>친박계<span class="s1">, </span>탈박계<span class="s1">, </span>진보여론<span class="s1">, </span>보수여론으로<span class="s1"> </span></p> <p class="p1">   세력을<span class="s1"> </span>분할<span class="s1">(divide)</span>하여<span class="s1"> </span>개별<span class="s1"> </span>협상에서의<span class="s1"> </span>승리를<span class="s1"> </span>통해<span class="s1"> </span>현<span class="s1"> </span>정국에서<span class="s1"> </span>지배적<span class="s1"> </span>위치<span class="s1">(rule)</span>를<span class="s1"> </span>회복하는<span class="s1"> </span></p> <p class="p1">  전형적인<span class="s1"> divide and rule </span>전략을<span class="s1"> </span>구사하고<span class="s1"> </span>있는<span class="s1"> </span>것으로<span class="s1"> </span>판단되며<span class="s1">, </span>이<span class="s1"> </span>노력은<span class="s1"> </span>성공할<span class="s1"> </span>것으로<span class="s1"> </span>추정된다<span class="s1">.</span></p>