<p class="p1"><b></b><br></p> <p class="p2"><b>박근혜</b><span class="s1"><b>/</b></span><b>최순실</b><span class="s1"><b> </b></span><b>게이트</b><span class="s1"><b> </b></span><b>향후</b><span class="s1"><b> </b></span><b>정치구조</b><span class="s1"><b>/</b></span><b>구도</b><span class="s1"><b> </b></span><b>변화</b><span class="s1"><b> </b></span><b>예측을</b><span class="s1"><b> </b></span><b>위한</b><span class="s1"><b> ACH </b></span><b>분석</b></p> <p class="p3"><br></p> <p class="p4">161202<span class="s2">일</span> 17:00<span class="s2">시</span> <span class="s2">기준</span></p> <p class="p3"><br></p> <p class="p2"><span class="s1"> O </span>지난<span class="s1"> 24</span>시간<span class="s1"> </span>동안의<span class="s1"> </span>추가<span class="s1"> </span>첩보</p> <p class="p3"><br></p> <p class="p2"><span class="s1">  - </span>박<span class="s1"> </span>대통령<span class="s1">, </span>지지율<span class="s1"> </span>반등<span class="s1"> </span>실패<span class="s1">. </span>새누리당<span class="s1"> </span>지지층<span class="s1"> </span>결집<span class="s1"> </span>가능성<span class="s1"> </span>식별</p> <p class="p3"><br></p> <p class="p2"><span class="s1">    12</span>월<span class="s1"> 1</span>주차<span class="s1"> </span>한국갤럽<span class="s1"> </span>여론조사<span class="s1"> </span>결과<span class="s1">, </span>영남<span class="s1"> </span>지역<span class="s1"> </span>및<span class="s1"> 60</span>대<span class="s1"> </span>이상에서의<span class="s1"> </span>새누리당</p> <p class="p2">지지율이<span class="s1"> 33%</span>를<span class="s1"> </span>기록하고<span class="s1">, </span>전국<span class="s1"> </span>지지율이<span class="s1"> 15%</span>로<span class="s1"> </span>상승하여<span class="s1"> </span>지지율<span class="s1"> 2</span>위를<span class="s1"> </span>회복하는<span class="s1"> </span>등</p> <p class="p2">전주<span class="s1"> </span>대비<span class="s1"> </span>유의미한<span class="s1"> </span>보수<span class="s1"> </span>지지층<span class="s1"> </span>결집<span class="s1"> </span>징후가<span class="s1"> </span>식별되었다<span class="s1">. </span>하지만<span class="s1"> </span>박<span class="s1"> </span>대통령에<span class="s1"> </span>대한</p> <p class="p2">전국<span class="s1"> </span>지지율은<span class="s1"> 4%</span>를<span class="s1"> </span>유지하여<span class="s1"> </span>개선<span class="s1"> </span>징후는<span class="s1"> </span>미미하였다<span class="s1">.</span></p> <p class="p3"><br></p> <p class="p3"><br></p> <p class="p2"><span class="s1">  - </span>야<span class="s1"> 3</span>당<span class="s1">, </span>박<span class="s1"> </span>대통령<span class="s1"> </span>탄핵<span class="s1"> </span>소추<span class="s1"> </span>오늘<span class="s1"> </span>발의<span class="s1">, 9</span>일<span class="s1"> </span>표결<span class="s1"> </span>합의</p> <p class="p3"><br></p> <p class="p2"><span class="s1">    </span>탄핵소추에서<span class="s1"> </span>민주당과<span class="s1"> </span>정의당<span class="s1"> </span>대비<span class="s1"> </span>다소<span class="s1"> </span>유보적<span class="s1"> </span>입장을<span class="s1"> </span>보였던<span class="s1"> </span>국민의당의<span class="s1"> </span>요구에<span class="s1"> </span></p> <p class="p2">맞추어<span class="s1">, </span>민주당과<span class="s1"> </span>정의당이<span class="s1"> 9</span>일<span class="s1"> </span>표결에<span class="s1"> </span>합의함으로써<span class="s1"> </span>야<span class="s1">3</span>당의<span class="s1"> </span>공조체제가<span class="s1"> </span>회복되었다<span class="s1">. </span></p> <p class="p2"><span class="s1">12</span>월<span class="s1"> 1</span>주차<span class="s1"> </span>한국갤럽<span class="s1"> </span>여론조사<span class="s1"> </span>결과<span class="s1"> </span>호남지역에서의<span class="s1"> </span>민주당<span class="s1"> </span>지지율은<span class="s1"> 48%, </span>국민의당<span class="s1"> </span></p> <p class="p2">지지율은<span class="s1"> 17%</span>로<span class="s1"> </span>거의<span class="s1"> </span>트리플<span class="s1"> </span>스코어에<span class="s1"> </span>근접하는<span class="s1"> </span>지지율<span class="s1"> </span>격차가<span class="s1"> </span>식별된<span class="s1"> </span>바<span class="s1">, </span>국민의당<span class="s1"> </span></p> <p class="p2">지지기반의<span class="s1"> </span>붕괴<span class="s1"> </span>위험이<span class="s1"> </span>동<span class="s1"> </span>합의를<span class="s1"> </span>이끌어낸<span class="s1"> </span>배경으로<span class="s1"> </span>추정된다<span class="s1">. </span>하지만<span class="s1"> </span>탄핵<span class="s1"> </span>표결이<span class="s1"> </span></p> <p class="p2"><span class="s1">9</span>일로<span class="s1"> </span>연기되어<span class="s1"> </span>박<span class="s1"> </span>대통령과<span class="s1"> </span>친박계는<span class="s1"> </span>제<span class="s1">4</span>차<span class="s1"> </span>담화를<span class="s1"> </span>통해<span class="s1"> </span>탄핵<span class="s1"> </span>거부<span class="s1"> </span>전술<span class="s1"> </span>및<span class="s1"> </span>지지여론<span class="s1"> </span></p> <p class="p2">결집을<span class="s1"> </span>위한<span class="s1"> </span>일주일의<span class="s1"> </span>소중한<span class="s1"> </span>시간을<span class="s1"> </span>확보하게되었다<span class="s1">.</span></p> <p class="p3"><br></p> <p class="p3"><br></p> <p class="p2">대통령의<span class="s1"> 7</span>일<span class="s1"> </span>오후<span class="s1"> 6</span>시까지<span class="s1"> </span>퇴진시기를<span class="s1"> </span>밝혀줄<span class="s1"> </span>것을<span class="s1"> </span>요구하면서</p> <p class="p2">어제<span class="s1">(1</span>일<span class="s1">) </span>합의한<span class="s1"> </span>새누리당<span class="s1"> </span>당론<span class="s1"> 4</span>월<span class="s1"> </span>퇴진<span class="s1">, 6</span>월<span class="s1"> </span>대선<span class="s1"> </span>기조를<span class="s1"> </span>유지한<span class="s1"> </span>바<span class="s1">,</span></p> <p class="p2">친박<span class="s1">-</span>탈박<span class="s1"> </span>간의<span class="s1"> </span>재결합<span class="s1"> </span>가능성을<span class="s1"> </span>다시시켜줬다<span class="s1">. </span>유승민<span class="s1"> </span>의원<span class="s1"> </span>등<span class="s1"> </span>일부<span class="s1"> </span>탈박계<span class="s1"> </span>의원들의</p> <p class="p2">탄핵표결<span class="s1"> </span>참가<span class="s1"> </span>가능성은<span class="s1"> </span>남아있지만<span class="s1"> </span>이탈<span class="s1"> </span>범위는<span class="s1"> </span>제한될<span class="s1"> </span>것으로<span class="s1"> </span>추정된다<span class="s1">.</span></p> <p class="p3"><br></p> <p class="p3"><br></p> <p class="p2"><span class="s1">  - </span>탄핵찬성<span class="s1"> </span>의원<span class="s1"> </span>명단<span class="s1"> </span>및<span class="s1"> </span>개인정보<span class="s1"> SNS </span>유출<span class="s1">, </span>탄핵촉구<span class="s1"> </span>메세지<span class="s1"> </span>쇄도</p> <p class="p3"><br></p> <p class="p2"><span class="s1">       </span>최근<span class="s1"> </span>탄핵에<span class="s1"> </span>찬성하는<span class="s1"> </span>것으로<span class="s1"> </span>추정되는<span class="s1"> </span>여당<span class="s1"> </span>의원들의<span class="s1"> </span>명단<span class="s1"> </span>및<span class="s1"> </span>휴대전화<span class="s1"> </span>번호<span class="s1"> </span>등의</p> <p class="p2">개인정보가<span class="s1"> SNS</span>에<span class="s1"> </span>유포되었다<span class="s1">. </span>이에<span class="s1"> </span>따라<span class="s1"> </span>탄핵에<span class="s1"> </span>찬성하는<span class="s1"> </span>다수의<span class="s1"> </span>국민들이<span class="s1"> </span></p> <p class="p2">소속<span class="s1"> </span>지역구<span class="s1"> </span>의원등에게<span class="s1"> </span>전화와<span class="s1"> </span>문자로<span class="s1"> </span>탄핵을<span class="s1"> </span>촉구하는<span class="s1"> </span>전화와<span class="s1"> </span>문자<span class="s1">, SNS</span>가<span class="s1"> </span>쇄도한<span class="s1"> </span>바</p> <p class="p2">정진석<span class="s1"> </span>원내대표는<span class="s1"> </span>이를<span class="s1"> </span>두고<span class="s1"> </span>홍위병이라며<span class="s1"> </span>원색적인<span class="s1"> </span>비난을<span class="s1"> </span>하였다<span class="s1">. </span>지금까지</p> <p class="p2">이정현<span class="s1"> </span>대표<span class="s1"> </span>및<span class="s1"> </span>정진석<span class="s1"> </span>원내대표가<span class="s1"> </span>박<span class="s1"> </span>대통령의<span class="s1"> </span>입의<span class="s1"> </span>역할을<span class="s1"> </span>해왔던<span class="s1"> </span>것을<span class="s1"> </span>고려할<span class="s1"> </span>때<span class="s1">,</span></p> <p class="p2">이는<span class="s1"> </span>탈박계의<span class="s1"> </span>이탈을<span class="s1"> </span>우려한<span class="s1"> </span>반발로<span class="s1"> </span>추정된다<span class="s1">.</span></p> <p class="p3"><br></p> <p class="p3"><br></p> <p class="p2"><span class="s1">  - </span>주말<span class="s1"> </span>광화문<span class="s1"> </span>및<span class="s1"> </span>여의도<span class="s1"> </span>집회<span class="s1"> </span>예고</p> <p class="p3"><br></p> <p class="p3"><br></p> <p class="p4">O <span class="s2">평가</span></p> <p class="p3"><br></p> <p class="p2"><span class="s1"> - </span>새누리당<span class="s1"> </span>및<span class="s1"> </span>국민의당은<span class="s1"> </span>법<span class="s1"> </span>절차와<span class="s1"> </span>정치일정<span class="s1">, </span>세력균형에<span class="s1"> </span>우선하여<span class="s1"> </span>대응<span class="s1"> </span>방향을<span class="s1"> </span>결정하고<span class="s1"> </span></p> <p class="p2">있으며<span class="s1">, </span>민주당<span class="s1"> </span>및<span class="s1"> </span>정의당은<span class="s1"> </span>여론의<span class="s1"> </span>뜻에<span class="s1"> </span>이끌려<span class="s1"> </span>명분에<span class="s1"> </span>따른<span class="s1"> </span>정책적<span class="s1"> </span>판단을<span class="s1"> </span></p> <p class="p2">하고<span class="s1"> </span>있는<span class="s1"> </span>것으로<span class="s1"> </span>추정된다<span class="s1">.</span></p> <p class="p3"><br></p> <p class="p2"><span class="s1"> - </span>새누리당의<span class="s1"> </span>내분<span class="s1"> </span>및<span class="s1"> </span>분당사태는<span class="s1"> </span>수습되었으며<span class="s1">, </span>친박과<span class="s1"> </span>탈박<span class="s1"> </span>세력은<span class="s1"> </span>공동의<span class="s1"> </span>목표를<span class="s1"> </span>위해<span class="s1"> </span></p> <p class="p2">협조하고<span class="s1"> </span>있다는<span class="s1"> </span>어제의<span class="s1"> </span>평가를<span class="s1"> </span>유지하며<span class="s1">, </span>그<span class="s1"> </span>공동의<span class="s1"> </span>목표를<span class="s1"> </span>새누리당<span class="s1"> </span>정권<span class="s1"> </span>재창출로<span class="s1"> </span>평가한다<span class="s1">.</span></p> <p class="p3"><br></p> <p class="p2"><span class="s1"> - </span>박근혜<span class="s1"> </span>대통령과<span class="s1"> </span>친박은<span class="s1"> </span>탄핵을<span class="s1"> </span>주장하는<span class="s1"> </span>민주당과<span class="s1"> </span>정의당을<span class="s1"> </span>고립시키고<span class="s1">, </span>내각제<span class="s1"> </span>개헌세력을<span class="s1"> </span></p> <p class="p2">규합하고<span class="s1"> </span>있다는<span class="s1"> </span>어제의<span class="s1"> </span>평가를<span class="s1"> </span>유지한다<span class="s1">. </span>하지만<span class="s1"> </span>정치세력의<span class="s1"> </span>규합에는<span class="s1"> </span>성공한<span class="s1"> </span>반면<span class="s1">, </span>이에<span class="s1"> </span>필요한<span class="s1"> </span></p> <p class="p2">보수<span class="s1"> </span>여론의<span class="s1"> </span>집결에는<span class="s1"> </span>실패하고<span class="s1"> </span>있다고<span class="s1"> </span>추정되며<span class="s1"> </span>이는<span class="s1"> </span>향후<span class="s1"> 2~3</span>주<span class="s1"> </span>간에<span class="s1"> </span>걸쳐<span class="s1"> </span>추가<span class="s1"> </span>여론조사<span class="s1"> </span></p> <p class="p2">동향을<span class="s1"> </span>반영한<span class="s1"> </span>후<span class="s1"> </span>평가를<span class="s1"> </span>확정해야할<span class="s1"> </span>것이다<span class="s1">.</span></p> <p class="p3"><br></p> <p class="p2"><span class="s1"> - 12</span>월<span class="s1"> 1</span>주차<span class="s1"> </span>갤럽<span class="s1"> </span>여론조사를<span class="s1"> </span>고려할<span class="s1"> </span>때<span class="s1">, </span>전국지지율<span class="s1"> </span>제<span class="s1"> 3</span>당으로<span class="s1"> </span>다시<span class="s1"> </span>밀려난<span class="s1"> </span>국민의당은<span class="s1"> </span></p> <p class="p2">지지기반인<span class="s1"> </span>호남<span class="s1"> </span>민심의<span class="s1"> </span>이탈을<span class="s1"> </span>막기<span class="s1"> </span>위해<span class="s1">, </span>야<span class="s1">3</span>당과의<span class="s1"> </span>공조에<span class="s1"> </span>복귀한<span class="s1"> </span>것으로<span class="s1"> </span>추정된다<span class="s1">.</span></p> <p class="p3"><br></p> <p class="p3"><span class="s1"> - 6번 개헌 및 9번 시나리오를 구체화하여 평가에 개별 시나리오를 재평가하였다.</span></p> <p class="p3"><span class="s1"><br></span></p> <p class="p3"><span class="s1"> - 6-1. 민주당 분열 하에 내각제 개헌 추진으로 시나리오와</span></p> <p class="p3"><span class="s1">   6-2. 임기단축 혹은 대통령 중임제 개헌 시나리오를  구체화하여 재평가하였다.</span></p> <p class="p3"><span class="s1"><br></span></p> <p class="p3"><span class="s1"> - 9. 급변사태, 9-2 시민혁명 시나리오를 한 단계 상향하였다.</span></p> <p class="p3"><br></p> <p class="p4">O <span class="s2">향후</span> 24<span class="s2">시간</span> / <span class="s2">주간</span> <span class="s2">전망</span></p> <p class="p3"><br></p> <p class="p2"><span class="s1"> - </span>향후<span class="s1"> 24</span>시간<span class="s1"> </span>동안<span class="s1">, </span>탄핵에<span class="s1"> </span>동조하는<span class="s1"> </span>국민들과<span class="s1"> </span>국회의원들은<span class="s1"> </span>고립될<span class="s1"> </span>것이며<span class="s1">, </span>이에<span class="s1"> </span>따라<span class="s1"> </span>국민들은<span class="s1"> </span></p> <p class="p2">거리로<span class="s1"> </span>내몰려<span class="s1"> </span>여의도와<span class="s1"> </span>광화문에서의<span class="s1"> </span>대규모<span class="s1"> </span>시위<span class="s1"> </span>및<span class="s1"> </span>집회를<span class="s1"> </span>진행할<span class="s1"> </span>것이다<span class="s1">.</span></p> <p class="p3"><br></p> <p class="p2"><span class="s1"> - </span>향후<span class="s1"> </span>주간<span class="s1"> </span>전망으로<span class="s1"> </span>박근혜<span class="s1"> </span>대통령은<span class="s1"> 6~7</span>일<span class="s1"> </span>중<span class="s1"> </span>제<span class="s1">4</span>차<span class="s1"> </span>대국민<span class="s1"> </span>담화<span class="s1"> </span>혹은<span class="s1"> </span>국회에<span class="s1"> </span>전하는<span class="s1"> </span>서한의<span class="s1"> </span></p> <p class="p2">형태를<span class="s1"> </span>통해<span class="s1"> 4</span>월<span class="s1"> </span>퇴진<span class="s1">, 6</span>월<span class="s1"> </span>대선<span class="s1"> </span>일정을<span class="s1"> </span>수용할<span class="s1"> </span>것으로<span class="s1"> </span>추정된다<span class="s1">. </span>여론조사<span class="s1"> </span>기간<span class="s1"> </span>및<span class="s1"> </span>언론<span class="s1"> </span>보도<span class="s1"> </span>시점을<span class="s1"> </span></p> <p class="p2">고려할<span class="s1"> </span>때<span class="s1"> </span>이와같은<span class="s1"> </span>의사표명은<span class="s1"> 6</span>일<span class="s1"> </span>이전<span class="s1"> </span>이루어질<span class="s1"> </span>가능성이<span class="s1"> </span>높다고<span class="s1"> </span>추정된다<span class="s1">.</span></p> <p class="p2"><span class="s1"> </span>탄핵에<span class="s1"> </span>동조하는<span class="s1"> </span>국민들과<span class="s1"> </span>국회의원들은<span class="s1"> </span>고립되고<span class="s1">, </span>탄핵<span class="s1"> </span>표결이<span class="s1"> </span>무산<span class="s1"> </span>혹은<span class="s1"> </span>부결될<span class="s1"> </span>가능성이<span class="s1"> </span></p> <p class="p2">높을<span class="s1"> </span>것으로<span class="s1"> </span>추정한다는<span class="s1"> </span>어제의<span class="s1"> </span>평가는<span class="s1"> </span>유지한다</p> <p class="p2"><span class="s1"> </span>이후의<span class="s1"> </span>정국<span class="s1"> </span>전망에<span class="s1"> </span>있어<span class="s1"> </span>가장<span class="s1"> </span>큰<span class="s1"> </span>변수는<span class="s1"> 3</span>일<span class="s1"> </span>여의도<span class="s1"> </span>및<span class="s1"> </span>광화문에서<span class="s1"> </span>진행될<span class="s1"> </span>집회의<span class="s1"> </span>규모와<span class="s1"> </span>탈박계<span class="s1"> </span>의원들의<span class="s1"> </span></p> <p class="p2">휴대전화를<span class="s1"> </span>대상으로<span class="s1"> </span>국민들이<span class="s1"> </span>전개하고<span class="s1"> </span>있는<span class="s1"> </span>탄핵<span class="s1"> </span>요구<span class="s1"> </span>활동의<span class="s1"> </span>강도<span class="s1"> </span>그리고<span class="s1"> </span>이에<span class="s1"> </span>대한<span class="s1"> </span>탈박계<span class="s1"> </span>의원들의<span class="s1"> </span></p> <p class="p2">분열과<span class="s1"> </span>당론<span class="s1"> </span>이탈이<span class="s1"> </span>주요<span class="s1"> </span>변수로<span class="s1"> </span>작용할<span class="s1"> </span>것이다<span class="s1">.</span></p> <p class="p2"><font face="Helvetica"><br></font></p> <p class="p2"></p> <div style="text-align:left;"><img src="http://thimg.todayhumor.co.kr/upfile/201612/1480668688361950f1b07f4a32831807fff472025f__mn645894__w1433__h794__f137670__Ym201612.png" width="800" height="443" alt="스크린샷 2016-12-02 오후 5.51.02.png" class="chimg_photo" style="border:none;" filesize="137670"></div><br><span class="s1"></span> <p></p>